GUS: Poles bought more than a quarter of a million flats and houses in 2021.

2022-07-28 11:30

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2022-07-28 11:30

GUS: Poles bought more than a quarter of a million flats and houses in 2021.  Is it the swan song of the market square?
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In 2021, Poles spent more than PLN 197 billion on real estate, at 38 percent. more than a year earlier – according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. Sales of apartments, houses and plots grew by double digits. On the other hand, the price increase slowed, che is still important.

Most – PLN 93.9 billion – based on data from the Register of real estate prices and values ​​- Poland spent on apartments and houses. This is an increase of 38.7 percent. compared to 2020. The average transaction amounted to approximately 347 thousand. PLN (+12.7% y/y).

In 2021, PLN 53.1 billion was also spent on vacant lots in Poland, representing an increase of 53.2%. and PLN 50.1 billion for built-up plots (+23.1% y/y).

Real estate turnover in 2021

Property type

the number of transactions

YoY change

[w proc.]

The total value of the transaction

[w mld zł]

YoY change

[w proc.]

Average transaction value

[w tys. zł]

YoY change

[w proc.]

General

614 260

+21.7

197.14

+37.8

320.94

+12.9

Real estate housing

270 466

+22.6

93.87

+38.7

347.06

+12.7

Developed real estate

94 849

+12.4

50.14

+23.1

528.63

+8.7

Undeveloped Properties

248 945

+24.5

53.13

+53.2

213.43

+23.7

Source: Real Estate Price and Value Registry

In total, 701,462 notarial deeds were signed in Poland throughout 2021, representing an increase of 24.3%. on a yearly basis. More than a quarter of a million of these related to the sale of homes (257,274 and +22.9% y/y). The number of signed notarial deeds relating to the sale of vacant lots increased even more markedly (188.334 and +33.3% y/y).

While these numbers refer to 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe and Poland, the aforementioned 2020 was also marked by a growing interest in real estate among Poles especially building land.

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Prices rose, but more slowly

According to data from notarial deeds, the average amount paid for housing increased by 9.2% in 2021, slightly slowing down the upward trend that had continued uninterrupted since 2016. Both new and second-hand flats became more expensive in the notarial offices filing at the same rate – by 9.1 percent respectively. y/y and 9.3 percent y/y

Notarial deeds for the sale of real estate concluded in 2021

Transaction subject type

Number of notarial deeds

YoY change [w proc.]

General

701 462

+24.3

living space

257 274

+22.9

undeveloped plots

188 334

+33.3

Agricultural real estate

76 675

+21.9

Plots developed with a residential building

73 064

+21.9

Cooperative property right on the property

51 469

+19.0

Other real estate

26 425

+13.4

Plots developed with a building for a different purpose

18 959

+16.6

Eternal usufruct

6 101

+16.2

Property sold to the Treasury or local government agencies

2 952

+12,8

Handover by the treasury or local government for perpetual usufruct together with the sale of the building

209

+22.9

Source: GUS based on data from the Ministry of Justice

If we look at the past six years and refer to the Central Bureau of Statistics up to 2015, the average amount paid for flats on the secondary market has increased more (+46.7% in the period analysed), while new flats have increased by an average of 34.3 percent

However, let us remind you that the first months of 2022 brought long unseen reductions in the average amounts recorded in notarial deeds, about which we wrote in the article “Apartments have become cheaper. The bigger it is, the easier it is to get a discount”.

2021 with swan song?

However, information from the market in the first half of 2022 shows that the situation recorded last year could only be the swan song of the Polish housing market. For several months now, customers who want to make use of a mortgage have been leaving the city en masse.

According to data from the Credit Information Bureau, it applied for a mortgage at almost 60 percent in June. fewer potential borrowers than a year ago and by 18 percent. less than May 2022

Even if we look at the number of home loans provided by banks, sharp declines are visible. According to BIK data, there were 13.6 thousand in May 2022. – by 43.3 percent less than a year earlier and at the same time for at least more than seven years. This is the effect of interest rates that have been rising for ten months and with it the declining creditworthiness of Poland.

Biuro Infomacji Kredytowej has updated its forecasts for the development of the credit market in 2022 and currently expects the value of home loans granted to fall by 40.4% this year and cash loans by 2.3%.

The collapse of the mortgage market was felt by the stock developers. How wrote Michał Kubicki in the article “The Collapse in Sales of Listed Real Estate Developers,” sales plummeted in the second quarter, deepening the momentum of the first three months of the year. The decrease in the number of apartments sold per year amounted to more than 50% in a number of cases.

As shown by the data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the outflow of customers using loans from the market is affecting the cautious approach of developers when starting new investments. In the first half of 2022, they started building 71,563 apartments, representing a year-on-year decline of 18.4%. It would probably have been more pronounced if the number of construction starts had not recovered in June. However, one of the reasons for this could be the new obligation for developers to pay contributions to the Development Guarantee Fund, which came into effect in July.

Marcin Kasmierczak

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