- Inflation is racing like crazy, reaching 15.6 percent in June.
- We have the calm before the storm. After the summer holidays we will have to deal with further price increases
- Gas and electricity bills will rise, and food will also become more expensive
- More such information can be found on the main page of Onet.pl
Inflation is raging. In June, that was 15.6 percent on an annual basis. That is slightly more than the economists who had estimated it at 15.5 percent. and clearly more than in May, when it reached 13.9 percent. At the same time, the June result is the highest since March 1997.
The National Bank of Poland report shows that we will have the inflation peak in the first quarter of 2023. It will then be 18.8 percent. Inflation is estimated to accelerate in the last quarter of this year when the anti-inflation shield stops working. It will be in operation until the end of October 2022. However, it is not certain that the government will abandon it completely.
One thing is certain when we look at the indicators. We are still waiting for a dynamic price increase.
Also see: Janusz Filipiak warns of crisis: politicians swear by reality
Heat will be expensive
When it comes to heating, you have to consider significant costs. – You can expect a significant increase in heating costs in the autumn. The magnitude of the price increase depends on the cost of obtaining coal, which has approximately tripled. We will probably see the first increases in October – says Jakub Rybacki, head of the macroeconomic team at the Polish Economic Institute.
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“Dear compatriots, try to insulate your houses for this heating season” – Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki appealed a few days ago. “I encourage everyone to take advantage of these building insulation programs and installations that will reduce the cost of heat and electricity by up to 70 percent.” – added.
We can be sure that the gas bill will rise. – In the first quarter of 2022, the average price of natural gas purchased in EU countries was more than PLN 439.26/MWh and more than 5 times higher than the previous year. Foreign contracts affect the prices of gaseous fuels on the Polish wholesale market, and these are then reflected in the gas prices for end customers in our country – remembers Agnieszka Głośniewska, spokeswoman for the Energy Regulatory Office.
It is not yet known when and how much the bills will rise. But it will be expensive, regardless of the heat source. In some warehouses, coal costs as much as 3,000. PLN per tonne. In 2020 it cost 900 PLN per ton. The eco pea cabbage has already reached 2.5 thousand. PLN per tonne. The government compensation for coal must be a rescue for these increases. Thanks to them, the price of a ton will be 996 PLN, each household can buy 3 tons.
The flow goes up
Electricity has become more expensive every year since January. Bills have already risen 24 percent this year. In exceptional cases, however, we cannot wait until the beginning of next year. Three energy companies: Enea, Energa and Tauron have already applied to the chairman of the Energy Regulatory Office for approval of new tariffs. Therefore, the increases can take place just after the holidays. Sellers may request new rates again at the end of the year. According to various forecasts, the electricity bill could rise from 40 to even 115 percent from the new year.
Also see: Inflation hits brides. Wedding increasingly expensive, guests start to refuse
Food is getting more expensive
After the holidays, food also becomes more expensive. – We are currently seeing major increases in purchase prices and this trend will continue for several months. This is a global problem – the Russian aggression against Ukraine has led to a food crisis. Soon we will also feel the effects of stopping the fertilizer trade. However, the situation could be improved by resuming grain exports from Ukraine, says PIE’s Jakub Rybacki.
The market is showing an upward trend for almost all product categories. – The largest increases are likely to relate to fatty products: mainly oils, margarines and butter, but also dairy products and bread. Of course, there are many reasons, but the main problems of this type are mainly more expensive raw materials, which drive up the high prices. Not only in Poland, but also in Europe and the rest of the world. The second factor is the ongoing war in Ukraine, which means much higher costs for businesses. Especially for food producers, but also for transport companies and, in general, for the entire retail logistics – emphasizes Dr. Krzysztof Łuczak, Chief Economist of the BLIX Group.
According to the expert, stimulants should also be added to the category of very expensive products. The “Price Index in Stores” by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Universities shows that stimulants have already risen by 10 percent. Every year. – Rising prices of commodities and their derivatives, as well as other factors, force producers to increase prices. Beer is a good example of this. The beer industry faces mounting problems, including rising prices of goods and raw materials needed for production. There is also talk of the state’s aggressive policy on excise taxes. At the same time, beer sales in Poland are falling. The product must therefore become more expensive. And that’s why, in my opinion, Poles need to prepare for further significant increases, not only from beer itself, but also from commonly understood stimulants – says Dr. Krzysztof Luczak.
Meat prices are also likely to rise. – Estimating the specific values of retail prices in the perspective of several months is a challenge of the importance of fortune telling from a crystal ball. The final price of meat and eggs offered to consumers will depend on the events that take place at different stages of the complex production and distribution chain. Nevertheless, the scenario based on price reductions is the least likely – says Katarzyna Gawrońska, director of the National Chamber of Poultry and Forage Crops.
As he adds, entities operating in the poultry industry will continue to be pressured by highly volatile and uncertain market factors: global inflationary pressures, rising production and logistics costs, and continued strong demand for poultry products in the international market. – In addition, we expect that price corrections – most likely upwards – will depend on the outlook for global supply-demand tensions in Ukraine’s exported feed raw materials and poultry products and the moods prevailing in the context of market participants’ concerns about a global economic recession. Poland, as one of the largest producers of poultry meat and eggs in shell in the world, is “obliged” to meet the growing demand for these products in the world. Moreover, in the case of eggs, the price increase may additionally be supported by a seasonal factor, ie a period of intensive preparation of processing plants and retailers for the December holiday demand – says Katarzyna Gawrońska.
Services go up
In addition to the more expensive electricity and gas, services will also become more expensive. We will pay more for hairdressers and beauticians. – I have just received information from a cooperative whose resources are rented by me that I will pay 100 percent from August. more for waste. I don’t have an official letter yet, but apparently gas prices are going up by the same amount. If this is confirmed, I will definitely increase the prices of services – says Małgorzata, who runs a hair salon.
It will also become more expensive in hotels in the autumn and the more expensive food, in combination with rising electricity and gas rates, will lead to higher prices in restaurants.
The deadlines can increase again
We will rest from interest rate hikes in August, but it is possible that they will go up again after the summer holidays. In July, the Monetary Policy Council raised interest rates for the tenth time in a row. They rose by 0.50 percentage point. This means that the main NBP rate will be 6.50 percent. This is the highest level since 2004. There will be no MPC meeting in August, but further rate hikes are possible in September. Analysts say the cycle of increases will end when the NBP reference rate reaches 7.5-7.75 percent. That is why at least one more rate hike is expected.
Fuel goes up
After the holidays, we also see price increases at gas stations. Prices have been falling since the start of the summer holidays. The current levels are as follows: 95 unleaded petrol – PLN 7.61/l, 98 unleaded petrol – PLN 8.35/l, diesel oil – PLN 7.65/l and autogas – PLN 3.46/l. – With the end of the downward correction in the crude oil market and due to the marked weakening of the zloty against the dollar, further major cuts in fuel prices in the domestic market are doubtful – says Urszula Cieślak, fuel market analyst at BM Reflex, in commenting on the current situation. The price hike could lead to the planned suspension of imports of oil and fuel from Russia, which was introduced by the sixth package of sanctions.