Prices of flats and single-family houses: the price of a square meter in the capitals of the voivodeship increased by about 15-23% y/y! The situation on the housing market

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NBP hedonic indexillustrating changes in house prices of similar characteristics and quality, for the group of 7 largest cities (Warsaw, Krakow, Łódź, Wrocław, Poznań, Gdańsk, Gdynia) in 1q22 indicated a continuation of price growth y/y in the secondary market ( Figure 8).

In the primary market in 1q22 in Warsaw and in smaller voivodeship capitals, compared to 4q21, the spread of the transaction price and the ask price of a flat has decreased, with a difference of about 1-3%, meaning little room for negotiation. The distribution in the 6 largest agglomerations (excluding Warsaw) changed in the same direction, with slightly greater leeway for the buyer (Figure 9).

In the secondary market, the transaction price of an apartment usually deviates more than the offer price (by 9-15%), especially in the largest agglomerations, which is of course the result of a greater diversification of the offer (Figure 10). Such a high spread in the analyzed groups of cities creates room for negotiation.

Prices of flats and single-family houses: the price of a square meter in the capitals of the voivodeship increased by about 15-23% y/y!  Situation on the housing market - 2

The assessment of price developments in the home market is complicated by the great heterogeneity of this real estate segment. lack of standardization of objects, as well as including (or not) including the price of a plot in the price of a house, which essentially limits the comparability of the price of a square meter of house. In addition, the lower frequency of transactions (the effect of high real estate values ​​and generally low market liquidity) results in low representativeness of data from a quarter, therefore the sample analyzed includes data from the last four quarters (in this edition of the report, its data is from the period 2q21-1q22).

Single-family homes are the basic form for meeting the housing needs in smaller towns and rural areas. According to the 2011 Census, apartments in single-family homes, with the definition of a single-family home as a building with a number of 1 to 3 apartments, made up: 12% of the total number of apartments in voivodeship towns; 18% in other cities (urban powiats without voivodeship capitals); 61% in land poviats.

Prices of flats and single-family houses: the price of a square meter in the capitals of the voivodeship increased by about 15-23% y/y!  Housing market situation - 3

Prices of flats and single-family houses: the price of a square meter in the capitals of the voivodeship increased by about 15-23% y/y!  Situation on the housing market - 4

Individual construction is the dominant form of construction in rural poviats. It is an economic system construction – since 2018, the Central Bureau of Statistics classifies apartments built by developers in single-family homes as apartments for sale or for rent. The recalculated historical data indicates that in 2017-2021, individual construction accounted for 60% of housing built in country poviats, 23% of housing built in urban poviats (excluding voivodship capitals) and 5% in voivodship capitals.

Country poviats and smaller townships are characterized by a high share of single-family homes and, at the same time, a high share of private homes (see Chapter 7, Graph 8 for each voivodship); for example, the highest share of private construction in 2017-2021 was characteristic of the land poviats of Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship (89%), as well as the land and urban poviats of Podkarpackie Voivodeship (83% and 39%), Śląskie (82% and 36%, respectively ) and Małopolskie (78% and 38%).

Transaction prices of single-family houses (CBN) in the largest cities, with previous reservations about their limited value for comparison, rose significantly in the period 2q21-1q222 in all groups of the largest cities – the average price per square meter is about 7, 3 thousand PLN (22.7% y/y) in Warsaw and about 6 thous. PLN in other largest agglomerations (16.5% y/y).

In smaller provincial capitals the price rose to approximately 4.7 thousand. (16.4% y/y). Housing prices in urban poviats tend to be higher than in land poviats (see Chapter 7, Figures 6 and 7 for each region), with a clear influence of location in well-connected poviats around large agglomerations, the attractiveness of the labor market or the tourist attractions of the city/region.

The upward trend in the share of residential transactions in the poviats surrounding the metropolis in transactions in the agglomeration (transactions in the city and adjacent poviats) continues.

*** The material is from the PKO BP report: “Rynek Mieszkaniowy 2q22 / Analizy Nieruchomości”, the full content of which you can view and download by clicking the button below

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